More than a year after its establishment by Parliament, the Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission has faced significant challenges in initiating formal peace talks between the government and various armed groups. Despite international pressure urging dialogue to resolve the country’s ongoing conflicts, no substantial discussions have yet begun.
The Commission's primary function appears to be meeting the expectations of the international community, rather than making concrete progress on the ground. One of the major hurdles has been concerns raised by armed groups about security guarantees during negotiations. In response, the Commission is exploring the possibility of holding talks in Djibouti, a neutral location, as some groups remain reluctant to negotiate within Ethiopia.
A recent development that could influence the dialogue process is the release of leaders from the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), who had been imprisoned for over a year without formal charges. Their release raises the prospect of their participation in the talks. However, the involvement of other key actors, such as the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and factions within the Amhara region, remains uncertain.
The Commission’s legitimacy has also been called into question, with skepticism from various quarters. The Oromo Federalist Congress, led by prominent opposition figure Jawar Mohammed, has been particularly vocal, criticizing the Commission's representation and questioning its ability to foster meaningful dialogue. Nonetheless, there are signs that some groups, particularly those active in the Oromia region, may be open to engaging in peace talks.
Despite these efforts, the likelihood of a breakthrough remains unclear. Observers have noted the absence of a strong third-party mediator—like the United States during the Pretoria talks between the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Ethiopian government—which could hinder the Commission's efforts to facilitate negotiations in Djibouti.
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